![]() ![]() To the average person in the street, the idea of Marcus Rashford scoring the first goal to help Manchester United to a 3–1 win over Burnley sounds like a pretty plausible scenario. This means that a scorecast outcome is pretty unlikely, so the bookmaker can offer what looks like a bargain 15–1, knowing the chances of it happening may be more like 50–1. As soon as you start combining probabilities of multiple events, the odds lengthen very quickly. It requires a combination of events to occur at once, in this case the exact score, the winning team and the first goal scorer. He would pass William Hill, Betfred and Ladbrokes, and notice they were all offering similar types of bet that went something like this: “Manchester United to win 3–1 v Burnley and Marcus Rashford to score first.” This very common type of bet is known in the trade as a scorecast. Newall used to walk down Walworth Road in London, a high street replete with bookmakers’ shops. That background, coupled with his in-depth study of psychology, makes him well placed to explain what the industry knows – and exploits – about how our minds work. Newall stuck to what he knew and, for the most part, only played against people he could be fairly sure, from telltale signs such as their patterns of play, weren’t professionals. At the poker table, he enjoyed a degree of success because he played just one type of game – fixed-limit hold ’em – where all bets and raises are fixed at a certain amount. ![]() Dr Philip Newall, a former poker player turned academic psychologist, has been studying dynamics like these for much of his professional life. Unlike many forms of gambling, poker requires a high degree of skill if your opponent is a bad player, they are unlikely to get the better of you with luck, at least not over time. Unlike many forms of gambling, poker requires a high degree of skill. We’re obsessed with finding patterns in things because that prevents us from going insane. “The human brain is incapable of dealing with randomness. “All gambling games are based on psychological triggers that mean they work,” he tells me. Kim Lund, founder of poker game firm Aftermath Interactive, has made a career out of game design and has seen at first-hand how cold, hard probability defeats the illogical human mind every time – and allows the gambling companies to cash in. Our love of football or support of a team convinces us that our gut feeling about a game is more reliable than it is, while our optimism tells us that, even thought the chances of winning a slot machine jackpot are stacked against us, fate may have chosen to upset the odds this time. Humans are irrational – we misjudge reality based on our flawed perception of it. T he starting point is understanding cognitive bias. The techniques gambling products use to tap into our psyches are both artful and terrible, marrying simplicity of concept with ingenuity of execution to nudge us towards dark choices. What is less well widely understood is how gambling companies are able to influence otherwise happy, intelligent and sociable people, causing them to act irrationally, against their own interests. Those affected know the trauma all too well. Betting firms also need to persuade punters that they have a decent shot at winning some money, even though – in the long term at least – they don’t. Convincing a customer to choose your brand – and remain loyal – is only half the battle with gambling. ![]() The occasional memory jog will remind you why you like it, and might lead you to buy more and to choose Coke over Pepsi when you do. Coca-Cola advertises in the knowledge that you probably already know how it tastes. But gambling has always been different from other consumer products. The betting industry promotes its wares predominantly through advertising on TV, social media or via wall-to-wall sponsorship of football clubs. At the other end of the scale, what starts out as a harmless flutter has driven countless customers into financial ruin, family breakups, and worse. The growth of the UK betting sector since then has created billionaires, such as Bet365’s Denise Coates and Betfred’s Done brothers. This money-spinning national love affair with betting owes much to the liberalisation of gambling laws under Tony Blair’s Labour government in 2005. E ach year, British punters lose more than £11bn to the gambling industry, equivalent to nearly £164 for every man, woman and child in the UK. ![]()
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